![]() ![]() If S4 has no hearts and no trump, then obviously leading diamonds is their only choice. if S1 leads a non-ace spade, and I throw off the 9H and my P takes the first trick with a trump and has no more trump and no off fresh AH to lead, then they should lead a non-ace heart if they have one as I am likely void in that suit now. If they only have 1 trump and use it on the first lead, then I would have them lead the AH if they have it or the cleanest fresh suit to lower the probability of me getting overtrumped unless they had a signal to lead something else, E.G. If my P threw off an Ace on my diamond trick I would always lead trump on 2nd street as my P is probably loaded.Īnd whenever my P takes the first trick they will always lead trump if they have it. If on that diamond lead my P threw off a heart meaning he probably has another heart I honestly don't know the best lead on 2nd street, I would actually lead trump, but leading the 9H could be best. If S1 led a diamond and I took that trick with my AD and my P threw off a spade, I would lead the 9h on 2nd street hoping my P is void. With no more voids to work with, I think leading trump is best but don't know. In that case I'm torn between leading the 9H or leading my last trump. If S1 led the AS, I would trump in and then lead the AD on 2nd street unless my P threw off a diamond on the first lead suggesting they have another diamond. If S1 led a non-ace spade I always played off with the 9H. And just in case having that AH makes passing the better play test this hand too (same KH upcard):īTW as far as other spots "where bidding, while generating a negative EV, is still favorable to passing" I'm predicting you'll find a lot of them in the 2 seat 1st rd. If this hand is +EV-meaning it's better than passing-I'm gonna crap my pants. Score is 0-0, you're the dealer.ĭiscard the 9S. ![]() I'll throw one out there for you to test. I think we've covered most of these possible hands from the dealer spot but if you discover new ones please let us know! My program already does this in many cases, but I'm finding more and more "holes" in my algorithm. Thu 7:19 pmI am personally going to revisit a whole subsets of hands which my program currently passes and try to identify very clear cases where bidding, while generating a negative EV, is still favorable to passing. Am I correct? Can you test claim 1 and 2? ![]() When that's not the case S1 should no longer make this very marginal call. The crux of this situation is S1 has no defense and nowhere to go in the 2nd rd. Passing with the intention of calling hearts in the 2nd rd and probably leading the QS hoping the KS is buried is better than calling spades in the 1st rd. Pass-pass is now better than calling spades in R1 becuz we have good defense in the 2nd round given that we block reverse next calls. Worthy of note, I've talked about this awhile back in other threads but my claims have never been verified. If the action gets to S4 in the 2nd rd: when he calls red I'm leading the non-trump red card. If it gets to my P in the 2nd rd, I would always lead trump if I have it. If S2 calls clubs, I would lead the KD (again an argument could be made for leading the turned down suit through the maker trying to create an overtrump situation). If we pass-pass, and the S2 calls red, I would always lead the red non-trump card (an argument could be made for leading the turned down suit through the maker tho given how dirty it is trying to force an overtrump). When S1 calls spades we are always leading a spade. Again even in the worst light-a statistical tie-ties go to the caller.Īs far as some assumptions with this holding. Either way, I feel comfortable saying calling is best. I know calling had a negative expected outcome, and I predicted pass-pass would have a higher negative expected outcome, but the numbers are closer than what I would've thought. This hand type has never been tested against pass-pass until now. I've tested hands like this vs Pass-Call Next (even tho that might sound crazy given we have no next cards), and calling won at a sample large enough to reach a 95% confidence interval. Obviously I'm not surprised by this finding. So I'd be more confident concluding that bidding is not a bad decision - it's not going to cause any significant EV hit - but passing is not necessarily a terrible option. While I think there is a reasonable argument to be made, based on these results, that bidding is the better option, there are a slew of assumptions that need to be made about how well my program mimics the reality of how all these hands would be bid and played. Pass: EV = -0.74 (2,700 loner calls by S2/S4, 23% success rate 750 sweeps 1,180 total calls by S3) Download rules as a Microsoft Word file.Complete listing of all Tips + Info here. ![]()
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